Hurricane Helene's Impact on Western NC Housing Market: 5 Supply & Demand Graphs (Part 2 of 3)

Building on our data-driven series, this second installment delves into the supply & demand dynamics of WNC's housing market post-Helene. We examine new listings and pending deals, shedding light on the storm’s profound impact on market activity.

By Zacory Ruiz
Published on December 2, 2024

Helene is far and away the deadliest hurricane in North Carolina's history—directly causing at least 96 deaths—and it has now been declared the state's most economically devastating hurricane as well. Gov. Roy Cooper just issued a Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment showing that Helene caused an estimated $53 billion in damage, far surpassing both Hurricane's Florence and Floyd.

In spite of this devastation, Part 1 of this series highlighted how WNC's real estate market has shown incredible resilience. Now, in Part 2, we will build on that foundation, offering a closer examination of the market's enduring strength and adaptability in the early post-Helene environment.

Our findings are both surprising and complex. While Western North Carolina’s dynamic and perseverant real estate market provides genuine cause for optimism, many families and businesses continue to face significant hardships in the storm’s aftermath. Nevertheless, the region’s ability to maintain positive inventory levels and attract buyers post-Helene offers hope for recovery, even in the hardest-hit communities.

Some Quick Housekeeping

If you're curious about the underlying data then I encourage you to revisit Part 1 to familiarize yourself with the notes on the data.

Each graph in the following analysis (except the first) starts on August 27th, exactly one month before Helene made landfall in WNC. This pre-storm period provides a valuable baseline for understanding how the market was performing before the storm's impact. A red vertical line on the graphs marks September 27th, offering a clear reference point to differentiate pre- and post-storm trends.

While this analysis does not account for seasonality—transitioning from early fall (pre-storm) to early winter (post-storm) inevitably impacts the market—you can explore these nuances further in each county’s Latest Report for free if you care to dig deeper.

Finally, I’ve designed the analysis so that the graphs in this article update every night with fresh data, ensuring the most up-to-date information is always available, and each graph is interactive, allowing you to filter each one by the county that matters most to you. The data will continue to update until all homes from the initial set of available listings are either sold, withdrawn, or expire.

It is my hope and goal that this in-depth analysis will give us a unique view of the impact a natural disaster of this magnitude has on a residential real estate market.

Let’s get started!

Western North Carolina's Resilient Housing Market: Sustained Positive Inventory Growth Despite Challenges

As you'll soon see, Western North Carolina's housing market has demonstrated an extraordinary level of resilience, with net inventory—calculated as the difference between homes withdrawn from the pool of properties available the day before the storm and new listings added since—remaining consistently positive.

Every withdrawal from the pre-storm housing supply was effectively replenished many times over by new listings, ensuring that the market not only avoided deficit but also sustained surplus inventory throughout the storm and the recovery period.

Note: Clicking on a label will show/hide it in the graph

The green line, representing net inventory change, reveals a steady upward trajectory, highlighting the market's ability to replace withdrawn listings and add surplus inventory. Remarkably, at no point does the net inventory dip below zero, even during the height of Hurricane Helene's disruptions. At just 3px wide, this green line underscores the region's extraordinary capacity to restore its housing stock amidst what Emergency Services Assistant Director Ryan Cole described as "biblical devastation."

The data underscores a dual reality: the market's ability to sustain positive inventory levels is undeniably impressive, yet it stands in stark contrast to the ongoing challenges faced by families and businesses still navigating the storm’s aftermath. While the resilience of the region's housing market inspires optimism, it serves as only one piece of a much more complex recovery story.

Even amid the storm's profound challenges, WNC's ability to maintain positive inventory levels reflects not only the market's broader economic resilience but also the region's capacity for recovery. It offers hope that even the hardest-hit areas will rebuild and recover over time.

While this achievement might seem less significant if new inventory had stagnated—a concern we will soon see is unwarranted—I wanted to start with this graph to clearly demonstrate strong market confidence and the region's capacity to sustain economic activity, even in the face of extraordinary adversity.

A Return to Normalcy: Post-Storm Listing Activity Trends Toward Seasonal Patterns

When visualized as a graph of daily new listings we can clearly see how the region's housing market began stabilizing in the weeks following Hurricane Helene. As a reminder, the red vertical line marks September 27th, the day Helene made landfall, providing a clear reference point for observing changes in listing activity before and after the storm.

Note: Clicking on a label will show/hide it in the graph

Listing activity understandably slowed in the immediate aftermath of Helene with noticeable dips in new properties coming onto the market. What's interesting to note is that listing activity didn't stop outright. While I cannot confirm this with absolute certainty, it is highly likely that some listings were pre-scheduled to go live on September 27th and the days that followed, with automation services executing these updates despite the disruptions caused by the storm.

As recovery efforts progressed the market began to regain stability. By late October and early November, new listings returned to levels resembling pre-storm seasonal trends, even as the region entered the typically slower winter months. This rebound coincided with the restoration of essential services, such as water supply, particularly in areas like Asheville—an important factor not visible in the graph but critical for understanding the broader recovery timeline.

While disruptions from Helene temporarily delayed activity, the data suggests that sellers quickly re-entered the market, likely buoyed by strong demand and confidence in the region’s real estate stability. The steady rise in new listings also underscores the adaptability of both homeowners and real estate professionals, who were able to restore normal market dynamics within weeks of the storm's peak impact.

Before moving on, a fun bit of information we can glean from the spikes in daily new listings is that brokers seem to be in agreement that the best day to list is Friday. I may have to look into this accepted norm (article coming soon?!).

Combining the daily counts we can see the cumulative effect of new listings on the market, and it is substantial.

Note: Clicking on a label will show/hide it in the graph

To analyze this graph, we'll focus on the slopes of the lines in each market, which represent the rate of new listings being added. A steeper slope indicates a more active market with higher inventory growth, while flatter slopes show a slowdown in new listings being added.

In the month leading up to Hurricane Helene, the graph reveals a healthy and active housing market, with consistent additions to inventory across all seven markets. However, to the right of the red line marking Helene's landfall, we see a sharp shift—each of the seven markets comes to a near standstill, reflecting the immediate and widespread disruption caused by the storm.

When compared to the daily graph above, the cumulative graph highlights the gradual but definitive recovery of normal market dynamics. While the daily graph shows sharp fluctuations in listing activity post-storm, the cumulative graph smooths these variations, making it clear that new listings steadily began to accumulate again after the initial disruption.

Market Momentum Rebuilds: Post-Storm Trends in Pending Deals

At its core, any market is governed by the forces of supply and demand. While new listings reflect the supply side of the housing equation, pending deals capture the demand side—the willingness and ability of buyers to commit to purchases. In the wake of a natural disaster like Helene, the demand side is often far more volatile and uncertain. Buyers may face disrupted finances, emotional hesitation, or logistical challenges, all of which can delay or prevent them from entering the market.

For Western North Carolina, this uncertainty was compounded by the scale of Helene’s devastation. Buyers were and continue to be forced to weigh significant risks, from the immediate impact on the region’s infrastructure to concerns about the long-term viability of properties. Despite these challenges, the data suggests that demand began to stabilize as recovery efforts progressed and it appears to be holding. This is particularly noteworthy in a post-disaster context, where buyers' confidence often lags behind the restoration of supply.

Following the same pattern as our new listing analysis, the daily and cumulative graphs of new pending deals highlight the immediate disruption and subsequent recovery in Western North Carolina's housing market following Hurricane Helene.

Note: Clicking on a label will show/hide it in the graph

Daily pending deals provide a more nuanced view of market activity during and after Helene. As expected, the immediate aftermath shows a dramatic slowdown in new pendings, with daily counts dropping to nearly negligible levels. This decline likely reflects logistical challenges—such as power outages, lack of running water, and blocked roads preventing buyers from viewing properties—as well as natural caution that accompanies a disaster of this scale.

What stands out in this graph, at least to me, is the speed and consistency of the market's recovery. By early October, daily pendings began to climb steadily, signaling a return of buyer confidence. The sharp upward trend through mid-October suggests pent-up demand, as buyers who were forced to pause their activity during the storm re-engaged once conditions stabilized.

The persistence of what we’ll call “seasonally strong pending activity given a historic natural disaster” into November and beyond is particularly noteworthy. It not only highlights the resilience of WNC's housing market but also suggests that buyers were motivated to act before the slower winter months set in. A key demographic in WNC’s housing market, out-of-state buyers, appears to remain confident in the region’s appeal. Given the magnitude of the rebound in pending deals, it’s safe to conclude that this group continues to see WNC as the place to be, despite—or perhaps even because of—Helene’s disruptions.

The steady rebound in new pending deals, coupled with their alignment to seasonal trends, offers a clear signal that the region's housing market remains fundamentally strong, positioning it well for continued growth in the months to come.

Let’s repeat our combination of the daily counts in order to see the cumulative effect of new pending deals on the market, and once again it is substantial.

Note: Clicking on a label will show/hide it in the graph

Repeating the same process as before we'll focus on the slopes of the cumulative lines, which represent the rate of new pending deals being added over time. A steeper slope reflects a more active market with a higher rate of accepted offers, while flatter slopes indicate a slowdown in deal activity.

In the weeks leading up to Hurricane Helene, the graph shows a robust housing market across all seven counties, with a steady stream of new pending deals contributing to cumulative growth. Once again, immediately to the right of the red line marking Helene’s landfall, we see a pronounced flattening of the slopes across the board.

The insight I want to emphasize from this graph ties directly to the point I made earlier regarding the net inventory line. This cumulative graph provides a clearer, more comprehensive view by smoothing out the sharp daily fluctuations seen in the previous graph. It highlights that, despite the immediate disruption caused by Helene, the market not only recovered but accelerated its activity in the weeks that followed.

What’s particularly significant is that this recovery isn’t just about sellers adding new listings to the market—buyers are actively stepping in to meet this supply.

The steady upward trajectory in cumulative pending deals underscores strong demand and sustained confidence in the region's housing market. This interplay between resilient sellers and motivated buyers reinforces the broader theme of market confidence and the region’s ability to maintain economic activity, even in the face of extraordinary adversity.

Closing Thoughts

Everything from quality-of-life metrics to housing market analysis is researched easily enough online (especially if you’re reading the Ruiz Report!). What’s much harder—if not impossible—to quantify is the quality of the people who call this place home. During Helene, I like to think the nation, and even the world, got a glimpse of how WNC residents banded together, thanks to the ongoing media coverage.

I can’t think of a way to quantify “the people here are super cool and will literally show up to your house unannounced with supplies to help in a time of need,” but we’ve got that metric in droves.

If you’ve heard me speak at any of our AVLmeetups, read the Ruiz Reports, and certainly if you’ve made it this far into this article, then know that I’m a big supply and demand guy. Interest rates have continued to rise, along with home prices, which means that the homes are now doubly expensive, and despite everything in “economic theory” that says these conditions should cool the market, supply and demand always gets the last laugh.

At least so far, demand continues to exceed supply in meaningful ways, and the market’s response to the region's worst natural disaster offers resounding support for the idea that Western North Carolina will continue to be a great place to live, invest in, and be part of.

What's Next

In Part 3 of this article series, we’ll explore the longer-term effects of Helene on the market. We’ll dive into original list-to-sale ratios and price reductions to understand how the storm has impacted pricing, examine days on market to assess changes in market velocity, and take a closer look at whether buyer demand remains strong. Stay tuned!

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